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Trucks Keep Slipping – Is It For Good?
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It didn’t take a trained eye to notice. Heading up to northern Michigan, on warm summer weekends, back in the late 1980s, it was hard to ignore the growing number of minivans, pickups and sport-utility vehicles shooting up I-75. Sure, there were always those who needed a pickup for work, a minivan for a big family, or an SUV to haul a boat. But a close inspection showed that more and more of those light trucks were simply replacing the traditional sedan.
By 1997, the scales officially tipped, and with the brief exception of 2002, trucks have consistently outsold traditional passenger cars. That is, until May, when sedans, coupes and sports cars narrowly nosed into the lead, with 778,651 sold, according to the tracking firm, Ward’s AutoInfoBank, compared with 777,296 light trucks.
That’s probably no surprise, considering the economics of $3-plus gasoline. As light truck critics have long argued, there are plenty of folks who simply don’t need to be running from business luncheon to afternoon meetings behind the wheel of a 12-mpg HUMMER.
One could argue that the balance has tipped even more in favor of cars, depending on your definition of the new crossover vehicles flooding the market. Products like the Toyota RAV4 and Saturn Vue may look like utes, but they ride on unibody platforms often shared with more conventional passenger cars. Under the skin, Ford’s recently renamed Taurus X is virtually identical to the Five Hundred sedan, which is about to be rebranded with the Taurus badge.
For the first time, last year, crossovers outsold conventional, truck-based SUVs, notes George Pipas, Ford’s chief sales analyst, and the trend will continue – at an increasingly rapid pace, many analysts believe, in the face of record gasoline prices.
Don’t write off the truck just yet, industry analysts are quick to caution. Detroit manufacturers, in particular, are maintaining SUV and pickup-heavy production schedules, notes a story in the New York Times. These gas guzzlers are simply too profitable – especially when compared with the fuel stingy econoboxes that Big Three makers have traditionally lost money on.
A revival of the moribund U.S. housing market will likely generate a jump in pickup sales, since a large percentage of these trucks are still sold for commercial applications. And there remain plenty of buyers who need pickups and large SUVs to haul boats, RVs and other trailers.
Meanwhile, facing the reality of high gasoline prices, the industry is looking for ways to counter the naysayers – and regulators – who’d like to drive light trucks off the road. I just experienced one example in the form of the Mercedes-Benz GL320 CDI. This diesel-powered, three-row SUV gave me an average of nearly 30 mpg running around Los Angeles, over the course of a week, much of that in heavy traffic. Expect manufacturers to start adding a lot more oil burners to their powertrain line-ups, now that the technology exists to meet tough new diesel emissions standards.
But barring a collapse in fuel prices, there seems little likelihood conventional trucks will regain the momentum they had early this decade. Mounting social pressures only add to the impact of high gasoline prices. The truck boom is almost certainly at an end.
What do you think? Tell us below if trucks are on the downward spiral.
MAY SALES MOSTLY UP—TheCarConnection.com
Responses (21 total)
By Thor | Posted: Jun 11th 2007, 08:03:51 AM
I meant of course 41, not 412 MPG for the heavy, big Chrysler 300 with the mercedes DIESEL. Highway miles. Too bad the car is not for sale yet with the diesel, but if Chrysler knows what's good for them, they should, IMMEDIATELY, and put that diesel on all their MINIVANS too, and blow all competition away.
By Thor | Posted: Jun 11th 2007, 08:00:58 AM
No, we have not just seen a rtransition from 13 MPG SUVS to 16 MPG Xovers Fake SUVS.
If you study sales in the US in 2000 and today, esp. if you focus on the top ten bestsellers, there is HUGE, ENORMOUS change!
Do the homework and you will observe the EXTINCTION of the EXPLORER from the list, WHILE not only ALL FOUR of the Accord, Civic, Camry and Corolla made it (Camry with 50,000 was NO 3! in May), but even the IMPALA with 35,000 sales in May alone also made it.
In 2000, that would be UNHEARD OF.
There is major and significant change. People cannot afford driving 100 and even 50 miles to work a day in 13 and 16 MPG POS SUVS or Fake SUVS crossovers. They need a 30 and 40 MPG vehicle, and there are PLENTY of them for sale, ALL NON_HYBRIDS. Civic, Fit, Corolla, Versa, Sentra, Yaris. Not ot mentuion the STELLAR MODERN DIESELS uwith ultra clean diesel fuel. The Mercedes 3-lt diesel in the biug 4,200 lbs Chrysler 300 got 412 ACTUAL MPG in a 325 mile highway run in VA, at 60-70 MPH.
and after three successive years of $3-$3.50 gas in the driving season, They KNOW it is NOT Temporary, but that $3-4 gas is HERE TO STAY. EVEN if people in the US get SOBER for a change and drop their energy consumption consuiderably, the difference will be picked up soon by the stellar growth of oil consumption in CHINA and soon in India too.
PS In 2000, FOrd had FIVE of the top 10 vehicles. TOday it barely has one or two.
By AntAus | Posted: Jun 10th 2007, 04:18:16 PM
I believe we are focused more on, "How high does price have to go for truck sales to deminish", when in actually it should be "How far must it go for people to reconsider a more fuel efficient alternative".
Let's face it, people don't like crimping their style and more-so than ever, they'll mortgage everything and anything and push their financial limits to get the vehicle they want. Whenever fuel spikes, it's either "Fuel or food tonight?" for some families...blaming fuel prices for their starvation, not blaming their buying decision.
Usually for automakers, it's the highest sellers that will stay alive. It's economically viable for them to sustain such sales, no matter how low they are. Trucks are much more inexpensive to manufacture than cars, and profits are hefty. Honda is phasing out the Ridgeline because it's everything that's opposite of a regular truck. And most probably other manufacturer's with unit sales of under 100K units (like the Titan) might drop the offering if fuel prices continue to climb.
Right now we'll see a transition where people who had the Tahoe making 13MPG, are moving into a GMC Arcadia that makes 16MPG. Hardly much of an improvement, but at least it's something.
By Kevin | Posted: Jun 8th 2007, 04:26:38 PM
In the end, most people prefer to select a vehicle based on what they like, not based on concern for other issues. It's been a constant battle between Government (pretending that people aren't smart enough to make the right decisions so that they should make the correct ones for us) and what people like. I remember these arguments between big & small, trucks and cars reoccurring over the years.
The bottom line is that if as a society we deem that more fuel efficient, smaller vehicles should be used, no amount of legislation generally works. But raise the gas prices and it's the economics that ended up changing the situation.
By Jon | Posted: Jun 5th 2007, 07:29:11 PM
The popularity of trucks in the late 90s was the perverse effect of CAFE rules. America did not really want the lighter, less-powerful vehicles governed by the car limits. They wanted the bigger, more-powerful vehicles classified as trucks for CAFE. Even the manufacturers that made only small, economy cars 30 years ago now make sub-20MPG SUVs.
CAFE ultimately did not have any effect on fuel consumption. Consumers just do not care how much fuel they use when it is so cheap. Even at current prices, most people will not change how or what they drive. The F-150 will continue to be the top-selling vehicle in the US unless gas tops $5/gal.
By Henry | Posted: Jun 5th 2007, 04:05:28 PM
Ken -
Interesting points. I have owned both domestic and Japanese makes. I found little difference in reliability between my 1987 Acura Integra and the 2001 Saturn L100 I currently own. Toyota makes probably the dullest automobiles on earth. The Camry is about as exciting to drive as a can opener. Toyota trucks are nothing to get riled up about either. Nissan's vehicles are styled nicely, but they fall apart from underneath. The 2005 Quest minivan I drove had brake problems, was a gas pig, and handled like a pig.
I like American and European cars.
By Philip | Posted: Jun 5th 2007, 03:21:21 PM
My 2000 Sierra gets 16+ MPG city and about 20 highway (at 70+ MPH), for $20K I can improve that by 2 to 5 MPG, can haul nothing larger than a bushell basket, have payments for 60 to 72 months, and not afford any gasoline. Where is the beef?
By Chris | Posted: Jun 5th 2007, 12:02:45 PM
My F150 got better mileage than the new Saturn Vue as tested by Car & Driver - I don't get it.....
By Ken Oteri | Posted: Jun 5th 2007, 11:56:31 AM
As I look out the window I see a Toyota Blundra and A Nissan Frighten. The japanese have got into the truck industry too late. I remember when the "Frighten" came out. The media went GaGa over it and said that the end of Domestic trucks were in sight. Well two or three years later, after a lot of customer dissapointment, the Nissan has failed to make its proclaimed 100,000 in sales for one calender year. So Toyota comes out with the "Blundra". Media goes GaGa over it. "The end is here for the domestics!" I here again. Toyota has dissapointing sales and slaps $3000 on the hood to pay Americans to buy it. Now camshafts are breaking in two and Toyota is pushing the blame onto someone else. Sounds a lot like my 2004 Camry. Engine blew. Toyota blames everyone but themselves. I go without a car for six weeks while Toyota decides what to do with the "ENGINE SLUDGE FIASCO". Finally they are going to replace my engine.
Now I'm told by the media, I have to buy a cardboard box on wheels. The greatest thing ever is the Yaris, Fit, and Versa. I say no thanks. I will never ride in one of those deathtraps. I just dumped my Toyota on some young teenager that doesn't know any better, and bought a new Chysler Sebring. I'm probably going to buy a Ford F150 next week. I guess I won't be the darling of the media anymore.
By Ebscoot | Posted: Jun 5th 2007, 11:41:08 AM
I think once gas prices level out and stay stable for awhile, coupled with a rebound in the housing market, demand will increase. In other words, people still wants the big utes, but just can't afford them right now. Once we can afford them they will make a comeback.
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