Whether you blame the generally sour economy, soaring oil prices, or a weak housing market, there's little good to read into the numbers for June. U.S. auto sales plunged by 18.3 percent in June. Worked out on an annualized basis, the industry would sell an anemic 13.6 million vehicles, a far cry from the 17-million-plus units automakers moved earlier this decade.

Significantly, the decline was actually twice as severe as the plunge taken in the months after the September 11 terrorist attacks nearly froze the American economy. When you tally up all the numbers for the first half of 2008, the industry has hit a 15-year sales low.

Virtually every manufacturer suffered, in June, but there were a few notable exceptions: Honda, in particular, Hyundai, and Volkswagen. Meanwhile, though its light truck sales have slumped spectacularly, General Motors actually posted an increase in retail passenger car sales - reflecting both some well-received new products and some effective cash-back marketing efforts.

"We felt that was a very successful month-end merchandising program," said General Motors director of sales, service, and marketing Mark LaNeve.

GM's campaign, which offered 0 percent financing for up to 72 months, still couldn't head off an overall 18.2 percent decline for the automaker in June. For the month, the company's market share actually rose, to 22.1 percent, reflecting just badly the rest of its competitors fared. For all of '08 so far, GM's share is 21.4 percent.

As in May, Ford Motor Co.'s big F-Series pickups were knocked down from the top of the U.S. sales charts, where they had collectively ruled for 27 years. The big trucks came in fifth among all models in June, behind such high-mileage imports as the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic. For the month, the F-Series posted a 40.5 percent decline; the truck line is down 22.7 percent for the year to date.

The collapse of the one-time best-seller pushed Ford even more deeply into the No. 3 spot in the U.S. market. For the year to date, it holds a 15.5 percent share of the American auto market, but in June, that was down to 14.6 percent.

Now well-entrenched as the No. 2 maker is Toyota, with a 2008 share of 16.7 percent. But beset by its own problems in the truck market, Toyota sales plunged a surprising 21.4 percent last month, giving it a June share of just 16.3 percent. That actually widens the gap between GM and Toyota.

But whether the American maker can hold onto its lead is uncertain, according to analyst Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank. The overall monthly numbers, said Lache, were "largely in line with our expectations. We would caution investors from reading too much into GM's June sales as previous '0% financing' and 'employee discount' promotions have typically had the effect of (only) temporarily boosting its market share." Those numbers, he cautioned, "may fall back."

Automakers and industry analysts alike suggested that some of the plunge in June sales reflect a shortage of the high-mileage vehicles that U.S. consumers are increasingly seeking out. That includes products like the Toyota Prius hybrid, the new Chevrolet Malibu, and Honda's Civic - both in gasoline and hybrid configurations. Where the industry generally considers a 60-day supply of vehicles on dealer lots to be the norm, the typical Prius is delivered to a customer within a day of its arrival from the factory.

"That limited availability, we believe, had an impact," said George Pipas, chief sales analyst for Ford Motor Co.

What's in store in the months to come is perhaps more uncertain than at any time in recent decades. Complicating efforts to forecast the U.S. car market, analysts have to project what will happen to fuel prices, the availability of loans, and the recovery of the housing market.

That's the question posed by researchers wondering whether dealers are doing a better job than conventional wisdom would suggest. We've all heard the horror stories, of course: dealers who renege on promises, deliver a different vehicle than the one a customer expected to get, or throw a prospect's keys on the showroom roof until the potential buyer gave in and inked the deal. But while such things may still happen, they're clearly the exception rather than the norm these days, according to the 2008 Prospect Satisfaction Index.

The PSI is designed to see how consumers are treated when shopping for a new car, motorcycle, RV, or boat. The independent study sent hired anonymous shoppers into auto dealerships nationwide representing all major brands, then calculated and reported the findings. And what the study shows is that the bulk of dealers are improving the way they treat customers.

Significantly, those brands that have been able to grow sales also have dealers who are more likely to satisfy shoppers. Eight of the top 10 brands that scored well on a sales standpoint also increased or maintained their PSI score from 2007 to 2008, reported Pied Piper. Of the 10 car brands with the worst year-to-date sales performance, eight also saw their PSI score decrease from 2007 to 2008.

"Today's typical auto shopping experience is far different from the experience even five years ago, and many dealerships are changing the way they sell cars as a result," said Fran O'Hagan, president of Pied Piper Management. "Today's shoppers arrive at a dealership already armed with facts and figures, but in the end the dealership and salesperson still play a critical role in helping shoppers turn that raw information into the best match for the shopper's needs and desires."

Notably, there's not always a direct connection between product quality and satisfied shoppers. Acura, the luxury brand of Honda Motor Co., fared reasonably well on the latest J.D. Power Initial Quality Survey, but topped the Satisfaction charts. Saturn, which had significant quality issues in the latest Power IQS, was No. 2 in shopper satisfaction, followed by Lexus and then Jaguar.

Significantly, the study found that a growing number of salespeople are suggesting customers consider brands other than those they original wanted to buy. Whether that's because of quality problems or because of higher commissions, the study doesn't say, but this happened most often in multibrand, rather than single-brand or so-called standalone, showrooms.

Of 37 brands Pied Piper studied, 24 either maintained or improved their Prospect Satisfaction scores in the 2008 study.

Which raises the question: Were you satisfied by how the salesperson treated you the last time you shopped for a car?

I can't see much through the visor of John Heinricy's full-face helmet. Nor can I move much once I'm all strapped into the molded Recarro seat of a near production-ready, 2009 Cadillac CTSv. But the crinkles in the corner of General Motors' top test driver's mouth tell me we're about to have a good time out on the high-speed test circuit at GM's Proving Grounds, in Milford, Michigan.

"Ready?" Heinricy asks, and he accurately reads the smile on my own, helmeted head as a yes. Slipping the sedan into gear, he strokes the throttle and releases the clutch. We might as well have been shot out of a cannon. The new CTSv shoots out of the gate and into the first corner, which Heinricy takes at speeds I wouldn't have even considered and certainly not dared. We charge through a short straight and into a highly banked oval that makes you feel like you've been caught onto one of those carney whirligigs. I can feel the blood in the back of my eyeballs, but Heinricy isn't even breathing hard--just calmly navigating every move he's making--and how the car is responding.

To sum it all up in two words: amazingly well. The first-generation CTSv was a solid performance car, pumping out an even 400 horsepower and 395 lb-feet of torque. It did a reasonable job up against many of its import competitors, though it also had a couple dismaying problems, like the tendency of the rear wheels to crow hop under a hard launch.

Not so the new v. It's solidly planted and absolutely impressive, as we discovered during an afternoon at the Proving Grounds. Give us some more time and we're bound to find something to complain about--nothing is perfect. But for now, the '09 Caddy CTSv has clearly landed a spot on our wish list.

The supercharged LSA 6.2-liter V-8, a cousin of the Blue Devil Corvette's LS9, makes a jaw-dropping 556 horsepower and 551 lb-feet of torque. You do the math. Both the automatic and stick pull the same acceleration numbers, GM officials claim, which means 3.9 seconds, 0-60, and 12 seconds in the quarter-mile. Top speeds are rated at 191 mph for the stick, 175 for the automatic.

But here's the number that the competition should really take seriously: 7:59.32. That's how long it took Heinricy to make it 'round the grueling Nurburgring, arguably the most challenging endurance course in the world, and certainly a benchmark track. While there may be some debate, this appears to be the fastest-ever time clocked by a production car riding on street tires. Oh, and intriguingly, Heinricy did it with the CTv automatic.

Getting there required a variety of edge-of-the-envelope enhancements to the engine, many of which GM engineers are keeping under their hat until the formal CTSv preview, later this year. But some of the most compelling changes occur further down the drivetrain. The prop shaft and rear differential have, as you might imagine, been beefed up to handle all that added torque. But the solution to that take-off hop problem proved surprisingly simple: an uneven pair of rear driveshafts. We'll spare you the engineer speak, but the new approach now delivers all the power the engine can make right to the ground.

The v's Magnetic Ride Control has also been enhanced, and in Sport Mode, even a pair of railroad tracks couldn't jounce the sedan off-line at 90 mph.

The original CTSv was shepherded in by GM's car czar, Bob Lutz, and designed to help reposition Cadillac as a truly global competitor. Despite the flaws in the first-generation car, it did an admiral job of emphasizing the automaker's engineering prowess. The '09 CTSv should do an even better job. Of course, the question is whether anyone will care.

Regular readers will note that Lutz spends a lot of time, these days, showering praise on more green-minded models, such as the upcoming Chevrolet Volt. But don't think that GM is ready to walk away from performance. No more than Mercedes-Benz will abandon AMG, or BMW its M-series. The '09 Caddy won't generate the sort of numbers likely to shift the sales charts, but it will nonetheless play an important role in the ongoing revival of General Motors' flagship brand.

If the production CTSv matches our initial experience, the competition--and their customers--will be taking notice.

My first trip through Russia was during the dark days of the old, Evil Empire. Flying into Moscow’s airport was a chilling experience, with few locals other than heavily armed, and exceedingly unfriendly soldiers watching your every move. Moscow’s roads were largely empty, but for the odd Lada and Moskvitch, almost certainly being driven by a senior government official or favored party apparatchik.

Those were the days, after all, when the idea of a consumer economy meant a single Pepsi machine located near the Kremlin – and a single paper cup that would be shared by everyone on the long line waiting for the machine to dispense its syrupy goodness.

These days, if you have the money, you can find plenty of Cristal champagne at the discos and fancy restaurants that seemingly pop up like mushrooms along Moscow’s increasingly crowded streets.

Forget the Moskvitch, and expect some big changes to Lada, which has formed a partnership with Nissan/Renault. Today’s increasingly affluent Russian consumers have access to virtually every automotive brand imaginable, and more are coming. The Nissan/Renault/Lada deal will result in a huge increase in vehicle available, as will a new General Motors plant. Though the country’s population is but a fraction of that in the world’s other boom markets, China and India, it seems like everyone wants a production presence on Russian soil.

The results are paying off, sales numbers for the first four months of 2008 indicate. Foreign brands are up 49 percent, with GM Chevrolet posting a 53 percent increase. Hyundai, a late entrant, scored a triple-digit, 108 percent gain, leading the charge by Asian makers. Among Europeans, Renault topped the sales charts and reported a 26 percent gain. Though still smaller, Peugeot also saw sales more than double against year-earlier numbers, while Volkswagen sales rose nearly 50 percent.

So, let’s see if I have this right: wWhen I first flew into Moscow, most comrades were walking or taking the bus. Now they’re buying cars and driving one of the world’s most vibrant consumer economies. Back here, in the U.S., we’re watching sales plunge and worried about the sinking economy. Care to remind me who won the Cold War?

Is Ford finally getting ready to write off its ailing Mercury division?

As regular readers will recall, that’s a question that’s come up more than occasionally in recent years, and it’s become even more of an issue with Kirk Kerkorian on the scene. The billionaire investor – who is now one of Ford Motor Co.’s largest shareholders – has suggested, through his front man, Jerry York, that both Mercury and Lincoln be abandoned.

There’s little question that Mercury is in serious trouble. The division’s sales are minuscule,, reflecting a serious lack of fresh product and an image that can be described, at best, as “fuzzy.” Among younger buyers, you might say, “invisible.”

That’s worrying many Mercury dealers, and not surprisingly. They’ve typically invested millions in their stores and would like to achieve a reasonable rate of return. So what they’re looking for is a reasonable commitment from Ford – a clear plan for the Mercury brand, backed up with a clear timetable for rolling out new products.

Early this year, the Lincoln Mercury National Dealer Council requested a clear outline from Ford. And the automaker originally promised to give it to them in April, dealers tell the Detroit News, though the automaker insists no such meeting was scheduled. Company officials do plan, now, for a meeting with dealers in September.

“The company is in the process of developing a strategy and has committed to communicating this plan to the Lincoln Mercury dealer network,” the retailer group announced in its newsletter.

Over the years, Ford has taken a sort of manic-depressive approach to the Mercury brand. Former CEO Jacques Nasser hailed the last version of the Mercury Cougar as a sign of the hip, youth-oriented models to come. But then, insiders say, the executive decided to kill off the brand by starving it of product. When Nasser was forced out, family scion Bill Ford indicated he would rebuild Mercury, but senior executives have said that they would likely provide only a handful of products to the brand. Three models would hardly sustain a retail network, dealers lamented, though Ford’s new corporate marketing czar, Jim Farley, suggested that a reinvigorated Lincoln brand would keep showrooms humming.

Traditionally, Ford has defended Mercury by insisting it attracted a more affluent buyer who would normally not turn to the Ford Blue Oval. And even though Mercury sales were always modest, compared to its mainstream sibling, the added volume helped keep the company’s assembly plants operating at or near capacity.

But these days, potential buyers don’t want just rebadged Ford products. Even with its chrome brushguards and trim, it’s difficult to disguise the fact that the Mercury Mariner is little more than a gussied-up Ford Escape. Developing significantly different product is costly and resource-intense. If anything, the cash-strapped Ford Motor Co. is hoping to cut product development expenses by consolidating efforts between its North American and European operations.

Last week’s grim announcement by current Ford CEO Alan Mulally only seemed to make Mercury’s fate seem bleaker. The former Boeing executive announced that the current fuel crisis and economic downturn have forced Ford to serious revise its turnaround plans. The automaker is slashing production and speeding up the trans-Atlantic product development merger. The anticipated return to profitability, in 2009, has been postponed – Mulally wouldn’t say till when – and though he said there were no plans for new plant closings, Mulally also refused to rule that option out.

Barring a serious breakthrough in strategy, the options for Mercury seem minimal, at best.