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What Next as Car Sales Collapse?

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Reporting on the auto industry can be a bit difficult, these days, certainly if you're hoping to find something good to say. And the latest news is no exception.

Wrapping up the second quarter, General Motors announced a whopping $15.5 billion loss, the third-worst in its history, and nearly double the record loss reported by Ford Motor Co. barely a week before. Chrysler did announce it had found a way to set aside $1.1 billion during the first half of 2008, but that's about the only thing good the automotive arm of Cerberus Capital Management seems to have to talk about these days.

And to make sure prospects don't look any better for the months to come, industry sales numbers showed that the market is, if anything, getting worse, with automakers large and small collectively reporting what would, on an annualized basis, come in at barely 13 million cars, trucks, and crossovers. That's down from an industry peak earlier in the decade of more than 17 million.

Chrysler, in fact, posted the worst downturn of any of the major makers, a 28.8 percent decline for July, with GM close behind, at a 26.1 downturn. Ford was off 14.7 percent, but there was something positive to note there, with the ailing makers passenger car sales actually rising by 1.9 percent. The big downturn - no surprise - across the industry is on the light truck side, where even Toyota reported a 27.1 percent drop, compared to year-earlier sales of vehicles like the Tundra pickup and Land Cruiser SUV.

But even Honda, which has seemingly defied gravity in recent months, proved that Newton was right. The Japanese maker reported an overall 1.6 percent decline.

The one positive surprise? Nissan delivering an overall 8.5 percent increase in July sales, despite its continuing decline on the light truck side. High-mileage small cars, such as the Versa, have helped the Japanese marque gain traction.

And that's what analysts are hoping can put a bit of momentum back into the industry, as makers race to expand production of products like Versa, Honda's Fit, and Toyota's Yaris. But even though domestic manufacturers are shutting truck plants as quickly as possible and converting many to handle small passenger cars, the changeover won't be easy - or quick. The first American version of Ford's new Fiesta, for example, won't roll out a former F-Series plant in Mexico until the 2010 model year.

A slight reprieve in fuel prices could help August's numbers, some analysts believe. But few expect a resurgence in the truck market. And the overall slump in the U.S. economy, with surveys showing consumers expecting even worse, isn't going to help the auto industry.

Indeed, the lending crisis is actually worsening things for the auto industry. Automotive finance subsidiaries and traditional lenders alike are tightening credit and, in many cases, curbing or eliminating entirely the leasing programs that, in recent years, helped get millions of motorists out of used vehicles and into new ones.

"I'm really worried about keeping my doors open," one Detroit-area Lincoln Mercury dealer told me last week. About 80 percent of his business is leasing, noted the retailer, who asked not to be named. And if he can't offer those low-cost deals anymore, he doesn't expect to convert many of his struggling blue-collar customers to a traditional sale.

The leasing cutback could be felt across the industry. For most luxury marques, leasing accounts for 70-plus percent of their business. Yes, makers like Lexus and Mercedes-Benz have more affluent customers, but many of those are also stretching their budgets to stay in the luxury market. If makers are forced to retune leases to reflect financial realities, some products could see huge price jumps. And that could lead many potential customers - especially those coming back for new leases - to walk away.

There's clearly light at the end of the tunnel. But right now, nobody's quite sure when they're going to get near enough to the end of this downturn to see it.

June Sales Slide to 15-Year Low

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2003-hummer-h2-fording-ravine-v2.jpgWhether you blame the generally sour economy, soaring oil prices, or a weak housing market, there's little good to read into the numbers for June. U.S. auto sales plunged by 18.3 percent in June. Worked out on an annualized basis, the industry would sell an anemic 13.6 million vehicles, a far cry from the 17-million-plus units automakers moved earlier this decade.

Significantly, the decline was actually twice as severe as the plunge taken in the months after the September 11 terrorist attacks nearly froze the American economy. When you tally up all the numbers for the first half of 2008, the industry has hit a 15-year sales low.

Virtually every manufacturer suffered, in June, but there were a few notable exceptions: Honda, in particular, Hyundai, and Volkswagen. Meanwhile, though its light truck sales have slumped spectacularly, General Motors actually posted an increase in retail passenger car sales - reflecting both some well-received new products and some effective cash-back marketing efforts.

"We felt that was a very successful month-end merchandising program," said General Motors director of sales, service, and marketing Mark LaNeve.

GM's campaign, which offered 0 percent financing for up to 72 months, still couldn't head off an overall 18.2 percent decline for the automaker in June. For the month, the company's market share actually rose, to 22.1 percent, reflecting just badly the rest of its competitors fared. For all of '08 so far, GM's share is 21.4 percent.

As in May, Ford Motor Co.'s big F-Series pickups were knocked down from the top of the U.S. sales charts, where they had collectively ruled for 27 years. The big trucks came in fifth among all models in June, behind such high-mileage imports as the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic. For the month, the F-Series posted a 40.5 percent decline; the truck line is down 22.7 percent for the year to date.

The collapse of the one-time best-seller pushed Ford even more deeply into the No. 3 spot in the U.S. market. For the year to date, it holds a 15.5 percent share of the American auto market, but in June, that was down to 14.6 percent.

Now well-entrenched as the No. 2 maker is Toyota, with a 2008 share of 16.7 percent. But beset by its own problems in the truck market, Toyota sales plunged a surprising 21.4 percent last month, giving it a June share of just 16.3 percent. That actually widens the gap between GM and Toyota.

But whether the American maker can hold onto its lead is uncertain, according to analyst Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank. The overall monthly numbers, said Lache, were "largely in line with our expectations. We would caution investors from reading too much into GM's June sales as previous '0% financing' and 'employee discount' promotions have typically had the effect of (only) temporarily boosting its market share." Those numbers, he cautioned, "may fall back."

Automakers and industry analysts alike suggested that some of the plunge in June sales reflect a shortage of the high-mileage vehicles that U.S. consumers are increasingly seeking out. That includes products like the Toyota Prius hybrid, the new Chevrolet Malibu, and Honda's Civic - both in gasoline and hybrid configurations. Where the industry generally considers a 60-day supply of vehicles on dealer lots to be the norm, the typical Prius is delivered to a customer within a day of its arrival from the factory.

"That limited availability, we believe, had an impact," said George Pipas, chief sales analyst for Ford Motor Co.

What's in store in the months to come is perhaps more uncertain than at any time in recent decades. Complicating efforts to forecast the U.S. car market, analysts have to project what will happen to fuel prices, the availability of loans, and the recovery of the housing market.

Are Dealers Doing a Better Job Satisfying Customers?

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Car Dealer That's the question posed by researchers wondering whether dealers are doing a better job than conventional wisdom would suggest. We've all heard the horror stories, of course: dealers who renege on promises, deliver a different vehicle than the one a customer expected to get, or throw a prospect's keys on the showroom roof until the potential buyer gave in and inked the deal. But while such things may still happen, they're clearly the exception rather than the norm these days, according to the 2008 Prospect Satisfaction Index.

The PSI is designed to see how consumers are treated when shopping for a new car, motorcycle, RV, or boat. The independent study sent hired anonymous shoppers into auto dealerships nationwide representing all major brands, then calculated and reported the findings. And what the study shows is that the bulk of dealers are improving the way they treat customers.

Significantly, those brands that have been able to grow sales also have dealers who are more likely to satisfy shoppers. Eight of the top 10 brands that scored well on a sales standpoint also increased or maintained their PSI score from 2007 to 2008, reported Pied Piper. Of the 10 car brands with the worst year-to-date sales performance, eight also saw their PSI score decrease from 2007 to 2008.

"Today's typical auto shopping experience is far different from the experience even five years ago, and many dealerships are changing the way they sell cars as a result," said Fran O'Hagan, president of Pied Piper Management. "Today's shoppers arrive at a dealership already armed with facts and figures, but in the end the dealership and salesperson still play a critical role in helping shoppers turn that raw information into the best match for the shopper's needs and desires."

Notably, there's not always a direct connection between product quality and satisfied shoppers. Acura, the luxury brand of Honda Motor Co., fared reasonably well on the latest J.D. Power Initial Quality Survey, but topped the Satisfaction charts. Saturn, which had significant quality issues in the latest Power IQS, was No. 2 in shopper satisfaction, followed by Lexus and then Jaguar.

Significantly, the study found that a growing number of salespeople are suggesting customers consider brands other than those they original wanted to buy. Whether that's because of quality problems or because of higher commissions, the study doesn't say, but this happened most often in multibrand, rather than single-brand or so-called standalone, showrooms.

Of 37 brands Pied Piper studied, 24 either maintained or improved their Prospect Satisfaction scores in the 2008 study.

Which raises the question: Were you satisfied by how the salesperson treated you the last time you shopped for a car?

Are Small Cars Safe? Surprisingly So!

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Smart fortwoThere was a lot of attention given a recent federal test of the new Smart fortwo. The little coupe received what was, on the whole, the highest possible kudos following a series of crash tests.

The microcar also was rated “good” last week by the influential Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Indeed, five of the 17 cars on the IIHS “good” list are in the small-car category. A dozen years ago, there were none, notes Joe White, of the Wall Street Journal.

I frequently field calls from nervous parents ready to buy the first set of wheels for their children. “How big a car or truck should I get?” the conversation usually begins. And in decades past, I would have suggested “really big.” In 1996, the death rate in the very largest of vehicles, say a Lincoln Town Car or Crown Victoria, was 76 per 1 million registered vehicles. For the few minicars on the road, the numbers were 165 deaths per million.

In 2006, the most recent year for which IIHS data is available, the death rate fell to 41 in very large vehicles, but just 106 in minicars. Over the same period, the statistics dropped from 126 to 99 in small cars, such as the Ford Focus or Toyota Corolla.

Yes, the parents among you might still want to put a lot of sheet metal between your children and the rest of the world (never mind your own bodies). But the statistics remain stunning in what they reveal about small-car safety, as White notes in his column.

How have the numbers improved so dramatically? Technology is certainly a factor. Even the lowest-priced cars now come equipped with the latest in airbag systems. And it’s not uncommon to find vehicles like the fortwo featuring several different passive restraints: frontal airbags, thorax bags, and air curtains.

Active safety also plays a role, with systems like anti-lock brakes and stability control helping avoid potentially fatal accidents in the first place.

Technology comes into play in another way: automotive design. Not all that long ago, a manufacturer might be forced to run dozens of crash tests before a vehicle was certified by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Several generations ago, Chrysler received an unexpected blow when its then-new minivans fell short of anticipated ratings due to errors in design and testing.

These days, makers have largely eliminated most of those gruesome crash tests, conducting much of their research in the computer, and running final prototypes into a barrier only for final federal validation. Computer-aided design and engineering systems allow for rapid and frequent revisions that can make a major difference in a vehicle’s crash survivability.

A video that ran on YouTube shows a jaw-dropping Smart fortwo crash test in which it seemed like the impact forces simply flowed around the passenger compartment. That’s precisely what engineers look to accomplish, in fact. Honda, for example, has developed its ACE structure. Short for Advanced Compatibility Engineering, it goes beyond the typical automotive crumple zones, channeling crash energy into specifically engineered body elements that steer clear of the passenger compartment.

So while it may still be argued that you and your kids are best off in a big car, during a crash, be aware that even some of the smallest vehicles now on the road are meeting the tough challenge of keeping you safe during a crash.

Honda’s ASIMO Gives a Classic Performance

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ASIMO Conducts DSOWe’ve all seen musicians who seem to just be going through the motions. But the guest conductor at last night’s performance of the Detroit Symphony Orchestra might have been forgiven, even if his manners were, well, a bit mechanical. That’s understandable when you consider that ASIMO lacks the heart and soul of a true musician. In fact, he lacks a pulse. And that made the robot’s debut with the DSO all the more impressive.

ASIMO is nonetheless the highly talented humanoid robot developed by Honda. His name short for Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility. ASIMO shared Tuesday’s billing with the very human and very nuanced cellist Yo-Yo Ma, who came to Detroit to receive the Orchestra’s “Changing Lives Through Music” award, its highest honor, presented by DSO’s new director, Leonard Slatkin. For his part, ASIMO led the evening off with a charged-up version of “The Impossible Dream,” from the musical, “Man of La Mancha.”

While ASIMO still has a long way to go to catch up with Star Trek’s near-human android, Commander Data, there’s no way to avoid being awed by the evolution of the robot. Forget those welding wonders you see on the assembly line. ASIMO can walk, talk, and, now, conduct.

What’s next? It’s hard to say, though most impressively, ASIMO also is showing an uncanny ability to learn from his environment. He may still not be able to deliver the nuanced performance of a human conductor, never mind a Yo-Yo Ma, but at the rate he’s evolving, this humanoid robot might soon be typing some of our future blog items.




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