Toyota: Tough Times Coming

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Toyota Tundra

Hard times are coming, predicts the world's largest automaker. Toyota - which captured the global sales crown from struggling General Motors during the first half of 2008 - has lowered its global sales forecast for the year, largely because it expects its first annual decline in the critical U.S. market in nearly two decades.

Last year, Toyota officials threw down the gauntlet when they predicted they would sell 9.85 million vehicles worldwide. At the time, most analysts responded by forecasting that would be enough to push the Japanese maker into the No. 1 slot. But no one counted on the slump in the U.S. and the general stagnation in many other developed markets, notably in Europe.

Now, says Toyota, it expects global sales to reach 9.5 million, this year, about 1 percent more than in 2007. But in the U.S. market, the company said in a brief statement, it will suffer its first sales decline in 17 years. When you combine the Toyota, Lexus, and Scion brands, volume is expected to total 2.44 million cars, trucks, and crossovers, compared with 2.62 million in 2007 - and the original, 2008 forecast of 2.64 million vehicles.

Toyota's 6.8 percent sales slump in the U.S. so far this year is complicated by a variety of factors. There's no question it has been hurt by the sudden, sharp decline in the American light truck market. The Japanese maker has ordered a months-long shutdown of its new Tundra pickup plant in San Antonio, and will pull additional production of the full-size truck out of another factory in Indiana. It has delayed the launch of a new plant that was supposed to build the Highlander SUV - but it will add production, there, of the popular Prius hybrid.

In fact, many analysts believe Toyota could be doing better in the States if it had more hybrids and small cars to sell. There are long lines waiting for the Prius in most of the country, and dealers typically sell the hybrid vehicles the moment a shipment arrives from the factory.

The U.S. isn't the only place Toyota is struggling. It is projecting a very small downturn in the home Japanese market for 2008. On the other hand, such slowdowns have been offset by robust demand in key emerging markets, including China, where Toyota has steadily been pushing its way into the top tier of import nameplates.

Prius Production Added in U.S.

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Prius with environmental message Look for a "Made in America" badge to start showing up on Toyota's top-selling hybrid-electric vehicle, the Prius. The Japanese maker will begin producing a version of the high-mileage sedan at a new plant in Blue Springs, Mississippi, starting in 2010, the company has confirmed.

Like its Big Three U.S. competitors, Toyota is trying to adapt, as quickly as possible, to the dramatic shift in the American market driven by record-high oil prices. While the Asian maker is racing to boost production of hybrids and high-mileage small cars, it plans to suspend, for three months, production of the slow-selling, full-sized Tundra pickup, which is built in San Antonio, Texas, as well as the Sequoia SUV, which is assembled in Princeton, Indiana. Both plants will halt production on August 8. Additionally, Toyota will stop production of the Tundra in Princeton next spring, and consolidate assembly of the truck in San Antonio.

Sales of full-size pickups, long one of America's largest product segments, has plunged from about 11 percent of the market at the beginning of the year to just 8 percent in recent weeks.

Toyota sales fell 21 percent in June, an even sharper downturn than the U.S. industry's overall 18 percent decline. The company's slide reflects both the slump in demand for light trucks - and a shortage of hybrids and other high-mileage products. By adding Prius capacity in the States, Toyota hopes to better meet booming demand.

"The truck market continues to worsen, so unfortunately we must temporarily suspend production," said Jim Wiseman, vice president for Toyota Motor engineering and Manufacturing North America. "But this good news about production mix demonstrates our long-term commitment to our North American operations and to our team members, suppliers and communities where our plants are located."

Toyota already produces a hybrid version of its Camry sedan in the United States.

Toyota Pinched by Truck Slump, Too

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Toyota TundraRegular readers of TheCarConnection.com have gotten used to the daily barrage of news and headlines trumpeting the impact of record oil prices on Big Three truck sales. But Detroit makers aren't the only ones feeling the pinch. After delaying the launch of a new plant intended to build its next-generation SUV/crossover, Toyota is facing up to the fact that even its trucks are vulnerable to the slowdown.

The automaker has announced it will slow production in the coming months at two of its already operating U.S. plants. The automaker's factory in San Antonio, the primary source for the Tundra pickup, will see a reduction in line speed, as well as 14 days of shutdown between now and October. Meanwhile, line speeds will also be trimmed at Toyota's Princeton, Indiana, plant, where the automaker has scheduled six days of shutdowns between now and late August.

The automaker will switch to a seven-hour assembly shift at the plants, starting in July. Workers will also put in an hour of training for each shift.

A key to Toyota's success has been to operate its plants at or above 100 percent of straight-time capacity, notes a Wall Street Journal article. The cuts mean Toyota will face the same underutilization issue that has plagued its big Three rivals and will likely lessen, or perhaps eliminate, any profits the automaker could earn at those plants.

Complicating matters, the Texas factory is designed to produce just Tundras, a sharp switch from the flexible manufacturing system Toyota uses virtually everywhere else in its empire.

Toyota has been forced to offer Detroit-level incentives on some of its big trucks in recent months, another sharp detour from its normal practices and a further strain on what it had hoped would be a year of solid profits from the North American market.

Japanese Also Slammed by Truck Slump

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Nissan Titan

Ford's turnaround plan is in tatters. General Motors must close four more of its plants. And Chrysler's biggest launch of the year, its new Ram pickup, has been all but aborted. Record fuel prices have been devastating Detroit. But the domestic automakers aren't the only ones feeling the pinch.

Asian manufacturers are feeling the pinch as well, and suddenly realizing that their own foray into light trucks now has a serious downside. Toyota, for example, has seen its incentives soar on the heavily promoted Tundra, yet even then, the full-size pickup has suffered a double-digit sales decline in recent months. The automaker has delayed the planned open of its new Tupelo, Mississippi, assembly plant, and scaled back sales expectations for the Highlander, the crossover/SUV that will be built there.

Then there's Nissan, which never quite connected to the U.S. market with its own big truck, the Titan. Overall, the automaker's light-truck lineup, including the Quest minivan and Armada full-size SUV, has suffered a 9.8 percent dip since the beginning of the year, but Titan sales have plunged a painful 44.5 percent.

That's leading the Japanese maker to cut light-truck production at its Canton, Mississippi, assembly line back to one shift - though it will also add a third shift at the plant for the increasingly popular Altima sedan.

Earlier this year, Nissan announced a major realignment of its truck fleet. Instead of building a next-generation Titan on its own, Nissan will team up with Chrysler to develop a version based on the Detroit maker's new Ram. Production of the Infiniti QX56 luxury SUV will be shifted back to Japan, and it is likely that major changes will be made to the Armada program, as well.