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Is the Truck Boom Over?

Is the Truck Boom Over?

By TCC Team's avatar TCC TeamTCC Team April 4th, 2008

Article ImageEnlarge Photo


Has the party finally ended? Ever since the mid-1980s, the U.S. light truck market has been on a giddy, upward spiral. The boom was fueled by relatively cheap and plentiful fuel – and an industry more than willing to provide premium-priced products to an eager market.

Notice we didn’t say “Detroit,” or “the Big Three.” While the domestic brands, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, have certainly benefited mightily from the quarter-century switch from cars to trucks, they weren’t the only ones eager to take advantage of this so-called “crossover boom.”

Look at Toyota, which, after several faltering attempts, finally nudged the 200,000 sales mark, last year, with its latest-generation Tundra pickup. In fact, as the result of its push into big pickups and SUVs, Toyota has posted one of the sharpest declines in Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, among any automotive brands, over the last decade.

At peak, pickups, SUVs, vans, minivans and other light trucks accounted for just short of six in 10 of the vehicles sold in the U.S. But last month, the percentage fell to just slightly less than half – 49.9 percent, to be precise. Certainly, a month doesn’t make for a trend, not in such volatile times, where the ups-and-downs of the economy, and fuel prices, can have a see-saw impact on consumer psychology.

A little more telling, figures from Autodata show that for the first three months of 2008, light trucks accounted for a still-dominant 51.6 percent, but that was down a full two percent points from the same, three-month period last year.

Could a sudden drop in oil prices, or a reversal of the current credit crunch change those dynamics? Perhaps, but all signs suggest that the new trend, a switch back from trucks to cars is pretty much locked into place.

Of course, there’s a fudge factor at work. The once-clear demarcation between cars and trucks has been blurred by crossover vehicles ranging from the Chrysler PT Cruiser to the Toyota Highlander. Some car-like vehicles land in the truck category, when the sales numbers are counted, some very trucky models may boost the car side of the sales charts.

But even improved economics won’t likely help trucks. There’s a growing social disdain for trucks, especially those driven by single, young Yuppies in power suits. Of course, everything runs in cycles, and while light trucks won’t disappear from the highway, they have, for now, begun to run their course. Enlarge Photo Has the party finally ended? Ever since the mid-1980s, the U.S. light truck market has been on a giddy, upward spiral. The boom was fueled by relatively cheap and plentiful fuel – and an industry more than willing to provide premium-priced products to an eager market. Notice we didn’t say “Detroit,” or “the Big Three.” While the domestic brands, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, have certainly benefited mightily from the quarter-century switch from cars to trucks, they weren’t the only ones eager to take advantage of this so-called “crossover boom.” Look at Toyota, which, after several faltering attempts, finally nudged the 200,000 sales mark, last year, with its latest-generation Tundra pickup. In fact, as the result of its push into big pickups and SUVs, Toyota has posted one of the sharpest declines in Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, among any automotive brands, over the last decade. At peak, pickups, SUVs, vans, minivans and other light trucks accounted for just short of six in 10 of the vehicles sold in the U.S. But last month, the percentage fell to just slightly less than half – 49.9 percent, to be precise. Certainly, a month doesn’t make for a trend, not in such volatile times, where the ups-and-downs of the economy, and fuel prices, can have a see-saw impact on consumer psychology. A little more telling, figures from Autodata show that for the first three months of 2008, light trucks accounted for a still-dominant 51.6 percent, but that was down a full two percent points from the same, three-month period last year. Could a sudden drop in oil prices, or a reversal of the current credit crunch change those dynamics? Perhaps, but all signs suggest that the new trend, a switch back from trucks to cars is pretty much locked into place. Of course, there’s a fudge factor at work. The once-clear demarcation between cars and trucks has been blurred by crossover vehicles ranging from the Chrysler PT Cruiser to the Toyota Highlander. Some car-like vehicles land in the truck category, when the sales numbers are counted, some very trucky models may boost the car side of the sales charts. But even improved economics won’t likely help trucks. There’s a growing social disdain for trucks, especially those driven by single, young Yuppies in power suits. Of course, everything runs in cycles, and while light trucks won’t disappear from the highway, they have, for now, begun to run their course.

Tags: Industry

Posted in: 2008, Toyota, Highlander



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Responses (22 total)

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3

  1. By Jim #1, Posted: 4/5/2008

    Some people will always need Trucks and I always hope they have the Freedom to choose one!

  2. By Ed #2, Posted: 4/5/2008

    Most Trucks and SUVs sold in 1996-2006 were NOT needed AT ALL by their buyers. I don't think the article referred to those that DO need them, who will buy them Rain or Shine.

    BTW, today's ( Sat) NEW record for Gas, while Diesel had its high on march 22:


    Regular Mid Premium Diesel E85
    Current Avg. $3.316 $3.521 $3.648 $4.023
    Yesterday Avg. $3.303 $3.507 $3.634 $4.023
    Month Ago Avg. $3.185 $3.381 $3.504 $3.710
    Year Ago Avg. $2.723 $2.890 $2.996 $2.881

    *Prices are in US dollars per gallon



    Highest Recorded Price:
    Regular Unl. $3.316 4/5/2008
    DSL. $4.037 3/22/2008

  3. By Ed #3, Posted: 4/5/2008

    And In California $3.696 $3.934 $3.999 $4.205, (!!!)

    They have already dissappeared.

  4. By JEM #4, Posted: 4/5/2008

    Ed - I'm not going to pretend to define my neighbor's needs. They can do that for themselves. If they decide that they need a vehicle with lower operating costs, or not, that's their choice to make.

    What I do lament is the Fruehaufization of the pickup-truck market. The present "half-ton" offerings are immense compared to those of a couple decades ago - even with a 4x2 you virtually need a stepladder to get at the bed - and those big chromed plastic snouts that everyone seems to regard as a market imperative are just silly.

    Further, there's no such thing as a "small" pickup anymore - the Colorados and Rangers and Tacomas are likewise huge compared to their forebears, and most of 'em are terribly cheesy compared to the small trucks of a couple decades back.

    I wouldn't mind owning something the size and build quality of an '80s Toyota pickup, with a decent 2-liter turbodiesel in it, but no one seems interested in selling such an item.

  5. By JEM #5, Posted: 4/5/2008

    Oh, and I'm definitely looking forward to the new GM 4.5L Duramax V8, it'd be very nice to have one in, say, a '69 Camaro...

  6. By Tom L #6, Posted: 4/5/2008

    JEM, good point about the growth of the pickup but look at the Tundra. Toyota has made its full sized bigger a couple of times and has increased sales in the process. The pickup buying public seems to want grossly huge pickups. I agree with you that pickups are much bigger than they need to be for 99 percent of the stuff the average consumer is going to do with them but people tend to buy vehicles based on that last 1 percent. It's a sign of how wealthy the American consumer was that he could be so wastefull in his purchases.

  7. By  Charley #7, Posted: 4/6/2008

    Since May of 2002 there have only been two months (May 2007, March 2008) that passenger cars outsold light trucks. While the sagging economy has certainly helped lead to to decline in overall sales, the shift from light trucks to passenger cars corresponds more to price of gasoline than anything else. In both May 207 and March 2008 gasoline prices set record highs. While politicians in Washington, DC and California continue to focus on increasing fuel economy standards for automakers its becoming obvious that high gas prices may do their job for them.

  8. By Ed #8, Posted: 4/6/2008

    The trend continues, more record gas prices and actually lower avg diesel price, and well below its record on 3/22

    Sunday morning's update: National Unleaded Average

    Regular Mid Premium Diesel E85
    Current Avg. $3.324 $3.530 $3.657 $4.022
    Yesterday Avg. $3.316 $3.521 $3.648 $4.023
    Month Ago Avg. $3.189 $3.385 $3.509 $3.736
    Year Ago Avg. $2.744 $2.913 $3.019 $2.890

    *Prices are in US dollars per gallon



    Highest Recorded Price:
    Regular Unl. $3.324 4/6/2008
    DSL. $4.037 3/22/2008

  9. By Ed #9, Posted: 4/6/2008

    "JEM Says:
    April 5th, 2008 at 4:39 pm

    Ed - I’m not going to pretend to define my neighbor’s needs. They can do that for themselves. If they decide that they need a vehicle with lower operating costs, or not, that’s their choice to make."

    You can pretend what you like, and so can your neigbors, but in most cases it is crystal-clear if the owner REALLY NEEDS a Pickup (and a full zise one to boot) and not just a stupid Focus or Hyundai. The people that NEED pickups are those that USE them 40 hours a week in their WORK, or every weekend to TOW things. NOT the people who never do that, but instead are POSERS and commute 100 miles a day in the stupid piclup and not only waste their own $, (their choice!) BUT Make Gas far more expensive for ALL THE REST OF US as well.

    NEED and CHOICE are two UTTERLY different words. My comments were about what they NEED.

  10. By Ed #10, Posted: 4/6/2008

    The continued high gas prices for over 3 years have sure changed the top ten vehicles sold in the US BIG TIME. Look them up, and if you have the 2000-2002 top ten, you can see the demise of not only the large SUV, but even the midsize SUV like the Explorer, who was high in the top ten with 450,000 vehicles, higher than any car, even the camry and accord, AND NOW it is not even in the top 20, and is even behind the stupid PRIUS, with a mere 150,000 units.

    Full size pickups were ALSO devastated, sold 600,000 F-150s last year instead of over 900,000 5 years ago! That's a 50% decline, and it may have to go further down to separate those who NEED the wasteful pickup from those who foolishly CHOOSE to use it as a subcompact, to commute!

    I am very pleased with the above. Soccer mom posers can buy a minivan or even a crossover, although the latter have hardly better MPG than the SUVs.


    The trends could not be clearer, and will continue with the April sales.

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