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Colin Mathews
My oil burning heart beat appreciably slower last night as I read through Car and Driver's February article entitled "Long Rangers." The test of four gas/electric hybrid vehicles, the Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid, Toyota Camry Hybrid, Nissan Altima Hybrid, and Ford Fusion Hybrid, included a sidebar entitled "Hybrid Vs. Diesel," in which they concluded that the future of the diesel car in the U.S. is "between dim and dubious."
Sniffle. Yet I must conclude that their deduction is mostly sound, and they have a good point. Still, in a comparison of their long-term Jetta TDI, they earned overall mpg that beat all of the hybrids in their four-car test, even compared to the now class-leading 2010 Ford Fusion hybrid that netted 34 mpg overall in their 300-mile test run. Their Jetta TDI has averaged 37.3 mpg in the over 11,000 miles they've accrued thus far, and guaranteed those miles have seen plenty of full throttle driving and liberal use of full boost from its turbocharger. A cross-country tour by mileage-busting Australian couple John and Helen Taylor netted 58 mpg from a stock VW Jetta TDI, and that was earned while staying within 5 mph of the posted limit, not put-putting at 10mph or anything ridiculous.
So what gives? Well, duh, the higher cost of diesel. Doing the math of diesel, which costs anywhere from about $0.80 to $1.00 more than regular unleaded at the moment, C/D found that operating the Jetta TDI with their drivers at the helm calculates out to 8.1 cents per mile for the Jetta TDI, well above the 5.6 cents per mile for both the Altima Hybrid and Camry Hybrid they piloted.
As it stands, with today's gas vs. diesel prices at the pump, these particular hybrids have a clear economy advantage over even the very frugal Volkswagen Jetta TDI. But - and this is a big but - do we all really expect the national average for regular gasoline (according to the Energy Information Administration) to remain at $1.78 (figure as of 1/12/09)? Wild fluctuations like we saw last summer could quickly diminish the amazingly low cents-per-mile figure of the gas/electric hybrids. Then again, if gas goes up, diesel will likely go even higher, so maybe my point is moot. Yet again, worldwide industry, expansion, and building, all of which rely on diesel fuel for industrial machinery, are down significantly, perhaps narrowing and ultimately eliminating diesel's premium over gasoline. Could the worldwide recession result in diesel prices at the pump coming down to, say, the level of premium gasoline or less? Ye economists at large, let me know if I'm dreaming or making sense.
I take issue with C/D's pat conclusion based on a rather narrow look at the mid-size, low-mid priced hybrid sedan category. Move up into the luxury and luxury SUV realm, and I think the case for diesel suddenly becomes much more compelling. Most high-compression gasoline engines in luxury cars (Mercedes-Benz E350, BMW 335i) require premium fuel to avoid pre-detonation (pinging). The higher cost of premium fuel narrows gasoline's price advantage over diesel. Moreover, the retail costs for these vehicles is much higher, making the premium for a more expensive diesel engine a smaller percentage of vehicle purchase price (in the case of the Mercedes-Benz GL SUV, the diesel model actually rings in with the lowest MSRP of the range). Finally, consider the longevity of the diesel engine, known to go well over 200,000 miles with regular maintenance; this either boosts resale value or allows an owner to enjoy many years sans car payments if he/she is the type to keep a car for 6, 8, or 10 years (admittedly, not your typical American car buyer).
Enlarge Photo My oil burning heart beat appreciably slower last night as I read through Car and Driver's February article entitled "Long Rangers." The test of four gas/electric hybrid vehicles, the Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid, Toyota Camry Hybrid, Nissan Altima Hybrid, and Ford Fusion Hybrid, included a sidebar entitled "Hybrid Vs. Diesel," in which they concluded that the future of the diesel car in the U.S. is "between dim and dubious." 2010 Ford FusionEnlarge Photo Sniffle. Yet I must conclude that their deduction is mostly sound, and they have a good point. Still, in a comparison of their long-term Jetta TDI, they earned overall mpg that beat all of the hybrids in their four-car test, even compared to the now class-leading 2010 Ford Fusion hybrid that netted 34 mpg overall in their 300-mile test run. Their Jetta TDI has averaged 37.3 mpg in the over 11,000 miles they've accrued thus far, and guaranteed those miles have seen plenty of full throttle driving and liberal use of full boost from its turbocharger. A cross-country tour by mileage-busting Australian couple John and Helen Taylor netted 58 mpg from a stock VW Jetta TDI, and that was earned while staying within 5 mph of the posted limit, not put-putting at 10mph or anything ridiculous. So what gives? Well, duh, the higher cost of diesel. Doing the math of diesel, which costs anywhere from about $0.80 to $1.00 more than regular unleaded at the moment, C/D found that operating the Jetta TDI with their drivers at the helm calculates out to 8.1 cents per mile for the Jetta TDI, well above the 5.6 cents per mile for both the Altima Hybrid and Camry Hybrid they piloted. 2009 Nissan Altima HybridEnlarge Photo As it stands, with today's gas vs. diesel prices at the pump, these particular hybrids have a clear economy advantage over even the very frugal Volkswagen Jetta TDI. But - and this is a big but - do we all really expect the national average for regular gasoline (according to the Energy Information Administration) to remain at $1.78 (figure as of 1/12/09)? Wild fluctuations like we saw last summer could quickly diminish the amazingly low cents-per-mile figure of the gas/electric hybrids. Then again, if gas goes up, diesel will likely go even higher, so maybe my point is moot. Yet again, worldwide industry, expansion, and building, all of which rely on diesel fuel for industrial machinery, are down significantly, perhaps narrowing and ultimately eliminating diesel's premium over gasoline. Could the worldwide recession result in diesel prices at the pump coming down to, say, the level of premium gasoline or less? Ye economists at large, let me know if I'm dreaming or making sense. 2009 BMW 335dEnlarge Photo I take issue with C/D's pat conclusion based on a rather narrow look at the mid-size, low-mid priced hybrid sedan category. Move up into the luxury and luxury SUV realm, and I think the case for diesel suddenly becomes much more compelling. Most high-compression gasoline engines in luxury cars (Mercedes-Benz E350, BMW 335i) require premium fuel to avoid pre-detonation (pinging). The higher cost of premium fuel narrows gasoline's price advantage over diesel. Moreover, the retail costs for these vehicles is much higher, making the premium for a more expensive diesel engine a smaller percentage of vehicle purchase price (in the case of the Mercedes-Benz GL SUV, the diesel model actually rings in with the lowest MSRP of the range). Finally, consider the longevity of the diesel engine, known to go well over 200,000 miles with regular maintenance; this either boosts resale value or allows an owner to enjoy many years sans car payments if he/she is the type to keep a car for 6, 8, or 10 years (admittedly, not your typical American car buyer). So now a little fuel mileage mathetmatics for two premium gasoline-swilling luxury autos vs. their diesel counterparts, with average U.S. fuel prices as of 1/12/09 taken from the Energy Information Administration: Mercedes E350, at an EPA 17/24 and with premium fuel at $2.00 per gallon, yields an operating cost of 8.39 cents per mile. Mercedes E320 BlueTEC, at an EPA 23/32, and with diesel at $2.32 per gallon, yields an operating cost of 7.26 cents per mile. BMW 328i, at an EPA 18/28, and with premium fuel at $2.00 per gallon, yields an operating cost of 7.14 cents per mile. BMW 335i, at an EPA 17/26, and with premium fuel at $2.00 per gallon, yields an operating cost of 7.69 cents per mile. BMW 335d, at an EPA 23/36, and with diesel at $2.32 per gallon, yields an operating cost of 6.44 cents per mile. Purchase price, of course, is an important consideration, as the technology, catalysts, particulate traps, and urea injection of today's diesels command a price premium. Here's that story: Mercedes E350: base MSRP $53,200 Mercedes E320 BlueTEC: base MSRP $54,200 BMW 328i: base MSRP $33,600 BMW 335i: base MSRP $40,300 BMW 335d: base MSRP $43,900 2009 Mercedes Benz E Class 3.0L BlueTec RWDEnlarge Photo The Mercedes price premium of $1,000 seems to present a pretty darn compelling argument for the diesel. The BMW's - gulp - $3,600 premium over even the brilliant twin-turbo 335i sedan makes it a compelling buy for probably only the most fanatical of diesel aficionados, like me (if I had a lot more money, that is). I'm forced to predict that sales numbers for the '09 335d will be but a tiny fraction of those for the 335i. The Jetta TDI, which starts at $22,270, brings diesel goodness and solid 30- and 40-mpg mileage to the masses, but still it's thousands more than its 5-cylinder gasoline brethren. It'll be interesting to see how MSRPs stack up for Audi's range of diesels such as the A4 3.0 TDI when they begin rolling out later this year and in 2010. Hybrids would seem at this point, yet, to present a more compelling cents-per-mile equation in the economy car realm, the mid-priced realm, and the moderately priced hybrid sedan realm. But this reality does hinge on the price differential between gasoline and diesel fuels, which is not a set-in-concrete thing. And while gas/electric hybrids are growing rapidly, they currently represent but a fraction of the car market. Against the gasoline-powered models that move the vast majority of Americans to and fro, diesels score tangibly better mpg gains. 2009 BMW 335dEnlarge Photo I think diesels have their place - albeit a small one - as a legimately clean and efficient proposition, not to mention as an amazingly torquey and satisfying way of motoring. I'll always prefer the feel and sound of an internal combustion engine, and taking my tachometer away and replacing it with, say, a vine that grows leaves as I back off the rheostat accelerator makes me nearly inconsolable (tachs are abandoned for mpg-o-meters and green iconography in many hybrids). But perhaps one day soon I will have to accept with great resignation that my mechanical love of the internal combustion engine is at odds with clean air and renewable energy - though I happily exclude my personal Benz turbodiesel, converted recently to run on used cooking oil. Okay, Car and Driver, diesels probably really only do make sense in a relatively small portion of the U.S. auto market: the luxury car and truck/SUV market. But still, I'm hesitant to write them off as "between dim and dubious" altogether.--Colin Mathews
Responses (6 total)
By Reece #1, Posted: 1/14/2009
Reece
Mr Lutz was right in saying that until the US tax's petrol and Diesel more htere is going to be great difficulty in getting buyers to buy fuel effecient behicles. Diesels in many circumstances make more sense that hybrids but the cost differential is such that it makes Hybrids seem the better option. A solution would be to tax petrol higher than diesel and thus bringing greater parity between the prices. This may lead to great buying of diessels in the US. Then again diesel still has a bad image in the US. In Europe on the other hand the onward domination of diesels seems to be continuing. Problemw ith his devide is that manufacturers are going to have to spend a lot of money developing different producst for the 2 different markets or select one and not the other to operate in. diesels have their place esepcialy in SUV's and trucks where there torque advantage can be used to the max along witht he fuel savings.
By gslippy #2, Posted: 1/14/2009
remember the batteries
I admire diesels, and fear hybrids - never having owned either. The long-term replacement cost of batteries - and probably higher repair cost - for the hybrid makes it a poor choice for me.
I'd much prefer the time-proven reliability and relative simplicity of a diesel.
In 2005, my choice of the Scion xB over the Prius was in part due to the 12-year payback of the hybrid because of its price premium. I also didn't like the driveability of the Prius, which would take some getting used to. Besides, although I'm no tree hugger, the xB earned the "greenest" car that year for its total "cost" to the environment, based upon material consumption, fuel economy, pollution, and its ability to be recycled. The Prius didn't come out on top.
By owlafaye #3, Posted: 1/15/2009
retired
Diesels will be sold in the US when the states lift the excessively prohibitive restrictions on diesels. There should be a loosening of rules when a car exceeds...say: 40 mpg on diesel.
The present diesel technology without exotic (eg: urea injection) applications is more cost effective and less a pollutant when the mileage climbs above 40 mpg. There are some small car diesels that get 80 mpg+ and these should be legislated into existence as a viable commodity in America.
The ultimate pollution numbers for high mileage diesels far exceed gas vehicles.
A few more mathematicians and progressive engineers in state government would certainly help.
By John V #4, Posted: 1/15/2009
"...lift the excessively prohibitive restrictions on diesels..."
@owlafaye: So you're proposing that diesels getting 40 mpg or above should not be subject to the same emissions and/or safety laws as every other car?
Sure. I can see THAT one flying just fine. Find me a politican who will advocate for "dirtier, less safe cars" when 40-mpg+ alternatives exist in the market already ? ? ?
By john #5, Posted: 1/15/2009
yes, there's prohibition on diesels
@John V, I don't think the implication was _necessarily_ that we should have dirtier cars available, but rather that the measurement should be rationalized. It is my understanding that the US currently measures emissions on a "per gallon of fuel consumed" basis, and it seems more sensible to measure emissions on a "per mile traveled" basis. This would have a tendency to show diesels in a more favorable light than they currently are in the US.
By Tundra Headquarters #6, Posted: 1/17/2009
Diesels inherently more efficient than gas
All things being equal, diesel engines are more efficient than gas. Higher compression ratios are thermodynamically better for fuel efficiency. However, diesels also produce more NOx (nitrous oxides) and SOx (sulfur oxides) than gas engines, so they're at a big disadvantage in terms of emissions regulations. SOx emissions have been greatly reduced by low sulfur diesel, but NOx emissions can't be reduced as easily. NOx is usually heavy and smoky, and unlike CO (carbon monoxide, which is much more dangerous to people and the environment) NOx can be seen with the naked eye. Hence, CO emissions (produced in copious amounts by gas engines) aren't as closely regulated as NOx emissions. Bottom line: US emissions regulations are bass-ackwards. Diesel engines are more fuel efficient, generate far less carbon monoxide, and yet they suffer from environmental regulations that were crafted based on what people can SEE instead of what really matters. THAT's the problem - fix it and diesel engines become cheaper. Cheaper diesel engines will also lead to lower diesel fuel costs in the long term as refineries will alter their production mix (heavily tilted towards gas) to meet the increased diesel demand. The USA uses less fossil fuels, reducing our dependence on foreign oil as well as improving our environment. Diesel SHOULD be the future, but sadly I have to agree it's going to be the better technology that failed.
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